December 6, 2023
The OFR’s 2023 Annual Report to Congress found financial stability risks have increased since last year’s report and remain elevated in 2023. Multiple indicators signal an upcoming economic slowdown—potentially magnified by persistent inflation, ongoing geopolitical risks, and global conflicts.
January 12, 2023
The OFR’s 2022 Annual Report to Congress found overall threats to U.S. financial stability were elevated compared to last year. The 2022 report discussed how the systemic risk landscape was elevated as financial institutions faced more uncertainty from rising inflation, tight credit conditions, and the geopolitical landscape. The report also looked at the emerging threats posed by non-traditional risks, such as cybersecurity, digital assets, and climate-related financial risks.
November 17, 2021
The Office of Financial Research's 2021 Annual Report found that while the economy rebounded, and volatility caused by the pandemic subsided, monetary policy, inflation, and cyber-attacks could heighten systemic risk.
November 18, 2020
The Office of Financial Research’s 2020 Annual Report found that unexpected turbulence from the COVID-19 pandemic elevated risks across financial markets and revealed limitations in conventional market monitoring.
December 11, 2019
This 2019 Annual Report to Congress states that risks to U.S. financial stability remain in the medium range, reflecting a mix of high, moderate, and low risks in the financial system. Solvency and leverage risk continues to be low. Most other types of risk to financial stability are moderate. Of those moderate risks, macroeconomic risk is higher than a year ago. Credit risk is still moderate. Market risk remains elevated. Asset prices have appreciated with the strong U.S. economy. High asset prices can be a plus, but as past crises have shown, can also be vulnerable to declines.
November 15, 2018
This 2018 Annual Report to Congress states that risks to U.S. financial stability remain in the medium range, reflecting a mix of high, moderate, and low risks in the financial system. Market risk is highest, reflected in historically high stock prices and the sensitivity of bond prices to changes in interest rates. Credit risk is moderate, with risk rising from leveraged lending (lending to companies with lower credit ratings), tempered somewhat by risks from consumer credit.
December 5, 2017
The OFR 2017 Financial Stability Report presents our annual assessment of U.S. financial stability. In Chapter 1, we highlight three potential threats to stability: vulnerability to cybersecurity incidents, resolution risks at systemically important financial institutions, and evolving market structure. In Chapter 2, we discuss our overall assessment of financial stability. We look at six categories of risk. We conclude financial stability risks remain in a medium range overall, although market risks are elevated. This report supplements our 2017 Annual Report to Congress.
December 5, 2017
The 2017 Annual Report to Congress fulfills our statutory requirement to assess the state of the United States financial system, including analyzing potential threats to financial stability, documenting progress in meeting our mission, and describing our key findings. We assess threats to financial stability by weighing vulnerabilities against resilience in the financial system. Our overall risk assessment is unchanged from last year: Threats to financial stability are moderate. But underneath that assessment are changes in the balance between vulnerabilities and resilience.
January 10, 2017
Our first Annual Research Review contains synopses of our working papers, briefs, and viewpoint published in fiscal 2016. Two themes emerge. First, our research reflects the importance of our independent view, which we are free to take because the OFR does not make policy. Second, the publication illustrates the importance of our mandate to improve financial data.
December 13, 2016
The OFR 2016 Financial Stability Report contains our in-depth analysis of U.S. financial stability risks. The first chapter frames our analysis in five risk categories that we monitor regularly. The second chapter takes a deeper look at seven key threats. Four themes stand out: the potential for disruptions in the global economy to affect U.S. financial stability, risk-taking amid low long-term interest rates, risks facing U.S. financial institutions, and challenges to improving financial data. Overall, financial stability risks remain in a medium range. This report supplements our 2016 Annual Report to Congress.
December 13, 2016
This 2016 Annual Report to Congress fulfills our statutory reporting requirements to assess potential threats to the stability of the U.S. financial system, describe key OFR findings and insights, and document our progress in meeting our mission. Our overall assessment — threats to financial stability are in a medium range — has not changed since our report last year, but global events and the evolution of the financial system have shifted the underlying factors. The report also outlines our priorities for fiscal year 2017 and beyond.
January 27, 2016
The OFR’s fourth Annual Report to Congress analyzes potential threats to U.S. financial stability, reports on key research findings, documents progress in meeting the OFR mission, and lays out the 2016 agenda of the Office. The report said threats to U.S. financial stability edged higher since last year's report, but remain in the medium, or moderate, range. That assessment has not changed since the Federal Reserve incrementally increased short-term interest rates last month. A central part of the OFR’s 2016 agenda is implementing a programmatic approach to its work, focusing initially on eight programs in core areas.
December 15, 2015
The 2015 Financial Stability Report analyzes threats to financial stability, evaluates policies to reduce those threats, describes actions to improve U.S. financial data, and reports key findings from OFR research. This report supplements and precedes the OFR 2015 Annual Report to Congress, which the OFR will publish in January.
December 2, 2014
The OFR’s third annual report highlights three specific areas of concern: (1) excessive risk-taking during an extended period of low interest rates and low volatility; (2) an increase in market fragility resulting in declining market liquidity and persistent risks of asset fire sales and runs, and (3) the migration of financial activity away from banks toward less regulated parts of the financial system. The OFR’s Financial Stability Monitor shows heightened risks to nonfinancial corporations in the United States due to relaxed lending standards, declining credit quality, and higher debt levels. The report identifies activities, such as leveraged lending and mortgage servicing, that have migrated from banks to less resilient parts of the financial system. The report also evaluates policy initiatives for promoting financial stability and described the OFR’s work to improve the quality and scope of financial data and analysis.
December 17, 2013
The OFR 2013 Annual Report, the second by the Office, assesses the state of the United States financial system, analyzes threats to U.S. financial stability, and identifies tools to monitor those threats. The report describes a prototype Financial Stability Monitor, a comprehensive new tool developed by the OFR for tracking threats and the interplay among them. The report also assesses gaps in data about short-term funding markets and other parts of the financial system, and documents progress on implementing the Legal Entity Identifier, or LEI, a global standard for identifying parties to financial transactions.
September 30, 2013
The OFR delivered this report, Asset Management and Financial Stability, to the Financial Stability Oversight Council on ways that activities in the asset management industry could pose risks to the financial stability of the United States by creating, amplifying, or transmitting stress through the financial system.
July 20, 2012
This inaugural OFR 2012 Annual Report details the progress of the Office in meeting its mission and statutory requirements. The report assesses the state of the U.S. financial system, including an analysis of any threats to the financial stability of the United States, the status of the efforts by the OFR to meet its mission, and key findings of the OFR’s research and analysis of the financial system. The report describes how the OFR is working to satisfy its statutory mandates and mission in four complementary areas: (1) analyzing threats to financial stability, (2) conducting research, (3) addressing data gaps, and (4) promoting data standards. In conducting this work, the OFR will follow two key principles: containing the costs of reporting and collecting data, and maintaining a resolute commitment to information security.