Annual Reports

The OFR’s 2023 Annual Report to Congress found financial stability risks have increased since last year’s report and remain elevated in 2023. Multiple indicators signal an upcoming economic slowdown—potentially magnified by persistent inflation, ongoing geopolitical risks, and global conflicts.

The OFR’s 2022 Annual Report to Congress found overall threats to U.S. financial stability were elevated compared to last year. The 2022 report discussed how the systemic risk landscape was elevated as financial institutions faced more uncertainty from rising inflation, tight credit conditions, and the geopolitical landscape. The report also looked at the emerging threats posed by non-traditional risks, such as cybersecurity, digital assets, and climate-related financial risks.

The Office of Financial Research's 2021 Annual Report found that while the economy rebounded, and volatility caused by the pandemic subsided, monetary policy, inflation, and cyber-attacks could heighten systemic risk.

The Office of Financial Research’s 2020 Annual Report found that unexpected turbulence from the COVID-19 pandemic elevated risks across financial markets and revealed limitations in conventional market monitoring.

This 2019 Annual Report to Congress states that risks to U.S. financial stability remain in the medium range, reflecting a mix of high, moderate, and low risks in the financial system. Solvency and leverage risk continues to be low. Most other types of risk to financial stability are moderate. Of those moderate risks, macroeconomic risk is higher than a year ago. Credit risk is still moderate. Market risk remains elevated. Asset prices have appreciated with the strong U.S. economy. High asset prices can be a plus, but as past crises have shown, can also be vulnerable to declines.

This 2018 Annual Report to Congress states that risks to U.S. financial stability remain in the medium range, reflecting a mix of high, moderate, and low risks in the financial system. Market risk is highest, reflected in historically high stock prices and the sensitivity of bond prices to changes in interest rates. Credit risk is moderate, with risk rising from leveraged lending (lending to companies with lower credit ratings), tempered somewhat by risks from consumer credit.

The 2017 Annual Report to Congress fulfills our statutory requirement to assess the state of the United States financial system, including analyzing potential threats to financial stability, documenting progress in meeting our mission, and describing our key findings. We assess threats to financial stability by weighing vulnerabilities against resilience in the financial system. Our overall risk assessment is unchanged from last year: Threats to financial stability are moderate. But underneath that assessment are changes in the balance between vulnerabilities and resilience.

This 2016 Annual Report to Congress fulfills our statutory reporting requirements to assess potential threats to the stability of the U.S. financial system, describe key OFR findings and insights, and document our progress in meeting our mission. Our overall assessment — threats to financial stability are in a medium range — has not changed since our report last year, but global events and the evolution of the financial system have shifted the underlying factors. The report also outlines our priorities for fiscal year 2017 and beyond.

The OFR’s fourth Annual Report to Congress analyzes potential threats to U.S. financial stability, reports on key research findings, documents progress in meeting the OFR mission, and lays out the 2016 agenda of the Office. The report said threats to U.S. financial stability edged higher since last year's report, but remain in the medium, or moderate, range. That assessment has not changed since the Federal Reserve incrementally increased short-term interest rates last month. A central part of the OFR’s 2016 agenda is implementing a programmatic approach to its work, focusing initially on eight programs in core areas.

The OFR’s third annual report highlights three specific areas of concern: (1) excessive risk-taking during an extended period of low interest rates and low volatility; (2) an increase in market fragility resulting in declining market liquidity and persistent risks of asset fire sales and runs, and (3) the migration of financial activity away from banks toward less regulated parts of the financial system. The OFR’s Financial Stability Monitor shows heightened risks to nonfinancial corporations in the United States due to relaxed lending standards, declining credit quality, and higher debt levels. The report identifies activities, such as leveraged lending and mortgage servicing, that have migrated from banks to less resilient parts of the financial system. The report also evaluates policy initiatives for promoting financial stability and described the OFR’s work to improve the quality and scope of financial data and analysis.

The OFR 2013 Annual Report, the second by the Office, assesses the state of the United States financial system, analyzes threats to U.S. financial stability, and identifies tools to monitor those threats. The report describes a prototype Financial Stability Monitor, a comprehensive new tool developed by the OFR for tracking threats and the interplay among them. The report also assesses gaps in data about short-term funding markets and other parts of the financial system, and documents progress on implementing the Legal Entity Identifier, or LEI, a global standard for identifying parties to financial transactions.

This inaugural OFR 2012 Annual Report details the progress of the Office in meeting its mission and statutory requirements. The report assesses the state of the U.S. financial system, including an analysis of any threats to the financial stability of the United States, the status of the efforts by the OFR to meet its mission, and key findings of the OFR’s research and analysis of the financial system. The report describes how the OFR is working to satisfy its statutory mandates and mission in four complementary areas: (1) analyzing threats to financial stability, (2) conducting research, (3) addressing data gaps, and (4) promoting data standards. In conducting this work, the OFR will follow two key principles: containing the costs of reporting and collecting data, and maintaining a resolute commitment to information security.