William Larson

Professional Experience
Publications

Supervisory Researcher, 2024 - Present
Office of Financial Research

Senior Researcher, 2023 - 2024
Office of Financial Research

Senior Economist, 2015 - 2023
Federal Housing Finance Agency

Economist, 2013 - 2015
Bureau of Economic Analysis

Manager, Modeling and Forecasting, 2011 - 2013
Washington Post

Research Assistant, 2007-2008
International Monetary Fund

Research Assistant, 2005-2006
U.S. Senate Finance Committee

Monetary Policy Announcements and MBS Prices (2025), working paper 25-08
Published to SSRN.
How Debt Affects the Relationship Between House Prices and Mortgage Rates (2025) with Andrew Martinez
Office of Financial Research Blog (June 17. 2025).
House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks (2025) with Andrew Martinez
Office of Financial Research Working Paper no. 25-02.
A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk (2022) with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Benjamin Smith
Review of Finance (forthcoming).
House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults (2022) with Paul Carrillo and William Doerner
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (forthcoming).
The Riskiness of Outstanding Mortgages in the United States, 1999 – 2019 (2022)
Real Estate Economics (forthcoming).
Urban Planning Policies and the Cost of Labor in Large Cities (2022) with Weihua Zhao and Anthony Yezer
Regional Science and Urban Economics 96, 103802.
Land Valuation using Public Records and Kriging: Implications for Land versus Property Taxation in Cities (2022) with Jessica Shui
Journal of Housing Economics 58(A), 101871.
Forecasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19 (2022) with Tara Sinclair
International Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 635-647.
The Price of Residential Land for Counties, ZIP codes, and Census Tracts in the United States (2021) with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Jessica Shui
Journal of Monetary Economics, 118, 413-431.
Effects of Land Use and Transportation Policies on the Spatial Distribution of Urban Energy Consumption in Brazil (2020), with Andressa Lemes Proque, Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos, and Admir Antonio Betarelli Júnior
Energy Economics, 90, 104864.
Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand (2020) with Weihua Zhao
Real Estate Economics, 48(3), 808-849.
Self-Driving Cars and the City: Effects on Sprawl, Energy Consumption, and Housing Affordability (2020) with Weihua Zhao
Regional Science and Urban Economics, 81, 103484.
An Empirical Examination of Shift‐share Instruments, with Dan Broxterman (2020)
Journal of Regional Science, 60(4), 677-711.
A benefit–cost analysis of floodplain land acquisition for U.S. flood damage reduction (2020) with Johnson et al.
Nature: Sustainability, 3, 56–62.
Missing the Mark: Mortgage Asset Valuation Accuracy and Credit Modeling (2019) with William Doerner and Alex Bogin
Financial Analysts Journal, 75(1), 32-47.
Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts (2018) with William Doerner and Alex Bogin
Real Estate Economics, 47(2), 365-398.
Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries, (2017) with William Doerner and Alex Bogin
Real Estate Finance and Economics, 47(2), 365-398.
Telework: Urban Form, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications (2017) with Weihua Zhao
Economic Inquiry, 55(2), 714-735.
Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands (2015) with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit
Real Estate Economics, 43(3), 609-651.
The Energy Implications of City Size and Density (2015) with Anthony Yezer
Journal of Urban Economics, 90, 35-49.
Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities (2014) with Laura Bakkensen
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(50) E5331-E5332.
Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates (2013) with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou
Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 255-274.
Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies (2012) with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer
Journal of Urban Economics, 72(2–3), 147-159.

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