Financial Stability Monitor

This monitor has been discontinued

This Financial System Vulnerabilities Monitor has replaced the Financial Stability Monitor. The OFR will not update the data provided here.

This monitor displays a snapshot of weaknesses in the financial system based on five functional areas of risk: macroeconomic, market, credit, funding and liquidity, and contagion. The monitor is not designed to predict the timing or severity of a financial crisis but to identify underlying vulnerabilities that may predispose the system to a crisis.

The monitor is organized as a heat map. The closer an indicator is to the red end of the spectrum, the more elevated the risks relative to the range of that series. The closer an indicator is to the green end of the spectrum, the less elevated the measured risks. A set of about 60 risk indicators underlie the five major risk categories and subcategories. To drill down further in each subcategory, click on the plus sign.

See latest note on the monitor and the OFR's assessment of risks.

See notes from previous periods.

Less Risk             More Risk
MACRO
 Economic Activity
Financial Conditions
OECD Leading Indicators
Consumer Confidence
Output Gap
 Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Credit Risk
Primary Balances
Sovereign Debt-to-GDP
 Inflation Uncertainty
Inflation Break-evens
Inflation Volatility
 External Sector
Current Account Balances
Foreign Exchange Reserves
MARKET
 Volatility
Market Volatility
Volatility Surface
 Interest Rate Risk
Duration Index
 Positioning
Investor Confidence Index
Net Speculative Positioning
Emerging Market Fund Flows
 Asset Valuations
Equity Markets
Commercial Real Estate
House Prices
High-Yield Credit
Treasury Term Premium
Municipal Credit
CREDIT
 Corporate Sector
Corporate Bond Spreads
Corporate Leverage
Nonfinancial Debt-to-GDP (Level)
Nonfinancial Debt-to-GDP (Change)
 Households
Mortgage Delinquencies
Household Debt Service Ratio
Household Debt-to-GDP (Level)
Household Debt-to-GDP (Change)
Savings-to-Income
 Financial Sector
Lending Standards
Bank Provisions
Bank Credit Risk
Bank Health Index
Financial Debt-to-GDP (Level)
Financial Debt-to-GDP (Change)
FUNDING/
LIQUIDITY
 Funding Conditions
TED Spread
Dollar Funding
Market Leverage
Excess Liquidity
 Market Liquidity
Treasury On/Off the Run
Trading Volume
Fails to Deliver
Nomura Dollar Liquidity Index
Citi Market Liquidity Index
Corporate Bond Turnover
 Balance Sheet Liquidity
Corporate Cash
Bank Liquid Assets
 Intermediation
Money Fund AUM
Money Fund WAM
Dealer Inventories
CONTAGION
 Joint Distress
SES
CoVaR
DIP
Hedge Fund Regime Switching
 Asset Market Interdependence
Asset Return Correlation
Financial Market Turbulence
 Interconnectedness
Sovereign Bank Feedback
U.S. Bank Foreign Claims
Bank Fire Sale Spillover

Interpreting the Monitor

The Financial Stability Monitor is just one tool policymakers can use to monitor the health of the financial system. It should be accompanied by rigorous and robust quantitative assessments, such as stress tests and macroprudential surveillance. The monitor will continue to evolve as the OFR tests its performance and evaluates new indicators, data, and statistical tools. The OFR will release updates of the monitor every six months to illustrate the changes in risks and vulnerabilities of the financial system.

Composition of the Monitor

The composition of the Financial Stability Monitor cuts across different geographies, sectors, and measurement methods.

Data Source for all charts: OFR analysis.

Composition of the Monitor

*"Global" represents indicators that cover the United States, other advanced economies, and emerging economies.